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# | Team | Δ | Record | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Chiefs | -- | 12-1 | The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams. | |
2. | Packers | +2 | 10-3 | There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess? | |
3. | Bills | +2 | 10-3 | For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl." | |
4. | Saints | -1 | 10-3 | This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule. | |
5. | Steelers | -3 | 11-2 | The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight. | |
6. | Rams | -- | 9-4 | Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game. | |
7. | Colts | +1 | 9-4 | Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday. | |
8. | Titans | +1 | 9-4 | Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games. | |
9. | Seahawks | +1 | 9-4 | Nothing cures | |
10. | Ravens | +2 | 8-5 | This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return. | |
11. | Browns | -4 | 9-4 | Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game. | |
12. | Buccaneers | -1 | 8-5 | The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round. | |
13. | Dolphins | -- | 8-5 | There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon. | |
14. | Cardinals | +1 | 7-6 | A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints. | |
15. | Raiders | -1 | 7-6 | The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs. | |
16. | Washington FT | +3 | 6-7 | Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker. | |
17. | Vikings | -- | 6-7 | Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots. | |
18. | Bears | +5 | 6-7 | The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards. | |
19. | Patriots | -3 | 6-7 | Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets. | |
20. | 49ers | -2 | 5-8 | The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys. | |
21. | Broncos | +5 | 5-8 | Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned. | |
22. | Giants | -2 | 5-8 | It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right? | |
23. | Falcons | -1 | 4-9 | Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league. | |
24. | Panthers | -3 | 4-9 | I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY. | |
25. | Eagles | +3 | 4-8-1 | Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu. | |
26. | Lions | -1 | 5-8 | Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen | |
27. | Chargers | -- | 4-9 | First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas. | |
28. | Texans | -4 | 4-9 | The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week. | |
29. | Cowboys | -- | 4-9 | The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario. | |
30. | Bengals | -- | 2-10-1 | Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati. | |
31. | Jaguars | -- | 1-12 | This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season. | |
32. | Jets | -- | 0-13 | The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off. |
# | Team | Δ | Record | Comment | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1. | Steelers | +1 | 10-0 | Going into Thanksgiving after a solid win against the hopeless Jaguars, if the Steelers win vs the Ravens, they're in. That's right, if they beat Baltimore, the Steelers clinch a playoff spot by Week 11. Meanwhile, the Ravens know their back is against the wall after losing a tough one against the Titans and being outside of the cutoff line for the postseason. A loss against the Steelers takes their playoff odds down to 50-50, while a hot Browns team beating the same reeling Jaguars team brings their playoff chances to 75%. Expect the Ravens take their frustrations out on the Steelers in what will be both teams biggest test this season. The Ravens are desperate now and that makes them even more dangerous. Even more dangerous if they have the beerbug. If the game is postponed, disregard all of this. | |
2. | Chiefs | -1 | 9-1 | The Chiefs have some soul searching to do on defense after another abysmal performance against the Raiders. Unlike the first matchup against the Raiders, the Chiefs offense was able to bail out poor performances from the defense and special teams this time thanks to the usual suspects on offense. Travis Kelce continued his otherworldly year. Tyreek Hill was as great as always. Patrick Mahomes made a game-winning drive with only 1:43 look way too easy. Even if the Chiefs defense has off days the Chiefs are always going to be competitive due to those 3 guys. They might have to lean on them, even more, when the Chiefs go to Tampa Bay next week. | |
3. | Saints | +1 | 8-2 | ||
4. | Rams | +6 | 7-3 | Jordan Fuller is the superior 199th pick. | |
5. | Packers | -2 | 7-3 | "MVS giveth, MVS taketh away" | |
6. | Colts | +7 | 7-3 | The Colts drive to close the game after stopping the Packers on a late 4th and 1 was the most poorly executed drive this ranker has ever seen. It's a testament to this team's heart and talent that they still pulled out a W after that debacle. Sunday's game was one of the biggest in recent Indy football and the Colts look to surge into the back stretch of the season. | |
7. | Seahawks | +5 | 7-3 | The Seahawks defense won the game on a Carlos Dunlap sack on a three man rush against Kyler Murray. This team is provocative.... gets the people goin. And the fans are here for it (RIP blood pressure). A long break between Thursday night and the game Monday night should mean the returns of Chris Carson, Shaquil Griffin, and Ethan Pocic. After a bit of a slump, the Seahawks next 4 opponents consist of the NFC East (minus the Cowboys) and the Jets. It's all comin' together, baby. | |
8. | Bills | -- | 7-3 | The Dolphins, Patriots, and Jets all lost this week, which is about as good of a bye week as the Bills can ask for. This has been a very weird season with a lot of flukey wins and losses. Despite losing to them (and getting their teeth kicked in by one), it’s hard to say the Bills are objectively worse than Arizona or Tennessee. A Hail Mary ended one, and there was a whole string of strange, confusing events leading up to the other that made it a tough game to prepare for. This isn’t to say Buffalo didn’t deserve these losses, but in such an up-and-down year around the whole league, 7-3 feels pretty damn good. Now, it’s time to make the final push for the division. | |
9. | Buccaneers | -4 | 7-4 | He was excessively loyal to his coordinators. No matter their follies, no matter the incompetence on full display, and no matter the need for change, he insisted they continue in their duties. He refused to step in to call plays until it was too late, and by that point, the writing was already on the wall for his job. This of course references former Buccaneers Head Coach Dirk Koetter. The parallels are there in the present, and after last night's Rams game (which included a rollout from Tom Cement Shoes Brady), OC Byron Leftwich has little confidence from Bucs fans. They better wake up, because Patrick Mahomes is next. | |
10. | Titans | +4 | 7-3 | The Titans were able to once again slow the Ravens offense enough to keep pace through the first three quarters and set up an eleven-point fourth quarter to take the game to overtime. In overtime, Derrick Henry became the first player in NFL history to score a second walk off touchdown in the same season. | |
11. | Ravens | -5 | 6-4 | This ranker would opt to write a blurb, but Greg Roman forced him to write a message to Hollywood instead. Can the Steelers be beaten without a DL? What about with two running backs on the COVID list? Asking for a friend. | |
12. | Cardinals | -5 | 6-4 | Leading the league in penalties (now 9 more than the next most penalized team) was bound to factor into a loss at some point. The offensive line also had their worst game of the season as Seattle's pass defense looked elite. Hopefully the teak used the extended time to work on some things and Murray's shoulder had enough time to heal. Sunday's game against the up and down Patriots will be absolutely critical. | |
13. | Raiders | -- | 6-4 | Bad officiating, bad defense, and scoring 30+ points and losing. Sunday night was exactly what you expect when you watch a Raiders game. The bright side for Raiders fans, they dominated KC on the road and barely scraped out a win after coming off a bye in Vegas. The Raiders can beat any team in the league, unfortunately their defense makes it so any team can beat them as well. | |
14. | Browns | +1 | 7-3 | The Browns are just two wins away from the first winning season since 2007 and third winning season in TWENTY YEARS. The Browns will face the struggling Jaguars next week. | |
15. | Dolphins | -6 | 6-4 | After a few weeks of glorious hope, Dolphins fans are welcomed back to the standard mood. Though the team's future still looks bright, this game was a hard reminder that the team is not yet all the way complete, and still has some glaring holes. Now the Dolphins travel to the winless Jets to see if they pull off the easy win, or if the long history of odd games in this rivalry continues. | |
16. | Bears | +2 | 5-5 | The bye week featured the most watchable performance from the Bears' offense all season. | |
17. | Panthers | +3 | 4-7 | The first shutout in five years was exactly what P.J. "Matty Ice" Walker and his two end zone interceptions needed. Even if this game was somehow closer than the end result, the defense really stepped up. A perfect 52 yard bomb to DJ Moore deserves specific recognition, as well as Brian Burns' overall game film. | |
18. | 49ers | +1 | 4-6 | Bye Week- Hopefully it allows enough time to get players off the Covid list. | |
19. | Vikings | -3 | 4-6 | Dalvin Cook leads the league in rushing touchdowns, Adam Thielen leads the league in receiving touchdowns, Justin Jefferson is on pace to break Randy Moss's rookie receiving record, Kirk Cousins ranks 6th in PFF grade... and yet none of it matters because half of the Vikings' defense is on IR. | |
20. | Patriots | -3 | 4-6 | Pass protection and defensive secondary struggled. Run game disappeared in the second half. lost Rex. Not Good! | |
21. | Broncos | +4 | 4-6 | Tua learned a very important lesson on Sunday. No matter how good your team is, no matter how hapless the Broncos appear to be, the power of Mile High bullshit will break you. Despite having an awful start after game after game of awful offensive play, the Broncos strung together just enough yardage to complement an amazing defensive performance to squeak out a win. Ultimately meaningless except for one point — Vic Fangio has now won as many games as Vance Joseph. | |
22. | Chargers | +1 | 3-7 | This game had all of the hallmarks of Chargers football: inconsistent and mistake-prone offense, a defense that only lasts 30 minutes, and incompetent special teams play. However, the Chargers hung on to win the game, probably because the other team was the Jets. Keenan Allen had a career day, as his 16 receptions in a game is a franchise record. The Herbert-Allen connection continues to grow stronger and will hopefully be a focal point of the offense for years to come. The Chargers will don the navy unis again in a cross-country tilt against the Bills next week. | |
23. | Falcons | -1 | 3-7 | Thank you @Saints for the opportunity to realize a top ten draft/pick. And thank you to the fans and the city of Atlanta for putting up with the Falcons... | |
24. | Texans | +4 | 3-7 | Every win against the Pats feels like a gift, even when they're as garbage as they are this year. Seeing Bill Belichick scowl at his team's loss never fails to brighten the spirits of all other football fans. | |
25. | Lions | -4 | 4-6 | The offense was actually terrible. This Lions team is a shell of the offensive strength it had last year. After being shut out by an XFL QB, Patricia's seat must be scorching. Technically still in the playoff hunt, but unless the Lions blowout the Texans on thanksgiving.... don't count on it. | |
26. | Giants | +1 | 3-7 | If you're going to have a Covid outbreak you might as well do it on your bye week. Here's hoping everyone makes a quick recovery and limits the spread to family members. The NFC East now has an entire division of 3-win teams, which means this dumpster fire of a division is more up for grabs than it's been all year. Big Blue heads to Cincinnati to take on the Burrow-less Bengals next. | |
27. | Washington FT | +2 | 3-7 | And here we are. Come Thanksgiving, The Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will battle it out for 1st place in the NFC LEAST. The winner standing tall at checks notes 4-7... This division is a toss up and we're really looking at a 5-11 or 6-10 team hosting a wildcard playoff game. | |
28. | Eagles | -2 | 3-6-1 | Real talk. Carson Wentz is among the worst, if not the absolute worst, starting quarterback currently in the NFL. Doug Pederson's magic from the 2017 season is dead and buried in a 50 foot deep hole in the Vet graveyard. Jason Peters is the worst overall player in the entire league. It is time for Doug to give up playcalling to someone with an iota of common sense. It is time to bench Wentz in favor of Jalen Hurts, if only to keep Wentz healthy for next season. It is time for Eagles' fans to accept the fact that being 1st in a division while 3-6-1 is not a "positive takeaway." | |
29. | Cowboys | +1 | 3-7 | Winners? For the first time in a while, Cowboys fans feel hope. | |
30. | Bengals | -6 | 2-7-1 | The Bengals were never going to make the playoffs in 2020, they only had one goal for a successful season, keep Joe Burrow healthy. The front office and coaching staff failed to do that. Because Mike Brown won't step down or move aside, the changes need to start with Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin, Head Coach Zac Taylor, Offensive Coordinator Brian Callahan, and offensive line coach Jim Turner. All four have contributed towards the catastrophic failure that is the Bengals in 2020 and need to be let go. For the remainder of the season the only goal is to land a top three pick and draft Penei Sewell. | |
31. | Jaguars | -- | 1-9 | It was not a trap game. It was, however, Shad Khan's 100th loss since buying the Jaguars. That doesn't count for much, but... no. No it's all just terrible. Send help. | |
32. | Jets | -- | 0-10 | The Jets have become the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention, considerably hurting their chances at making the playoffs. |
Rank | Team | P(Win Week) | P(Win Out) | E(Wins) |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | CHI | 77% | 68.6% | 16.66 |
2 | HOU | 75% | 66.8% | 16.64 |
3 | PHI | 60% | 53.4% | 16.49 |
4 | WSH | 53% | 47.2% | 16.42 |
Week | Team | Opp | P(Win) |
---|---|---|---|
1 | BUF | NYJ | 100% |
2 | TB | CAR | 100% |
3 | CLE | WSH | 100% |
4 | LAR | NYG | 100% |
5 | NO | LAC | 100% |
6 | MIA | NYJ | 100% |
7 | LAC | JAX | 100% |
8 | KC | NYJ | 100% |
9 | NE | NYJ | 100% |
10 | GB | JAX | 100% |
11 | PIT | @JAX | 100% |
12 | NYG | @CIN | 100% |
13 | MIN | JAX | 100% |
14 | SEA | NYJ | 100% |
15 | BAL | JAX | 100% |
16 | HOU | CIN | 77% |
17 | IND | JAX | 89% |
submitted by hallach_halil to NFL_Draft [link] [comments] https://preview.redd.it/u9tnu06rraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=a3b8cc6942727bd40ebd62f8cf8a90636ebef08f The two teams meeting in this year’s national title game took very different paths to get here. The SEC (together with the ACC) was one of only two conferences to basically start the season “on time” and Alabama played ten regular season games, to go along with beating Florida in a shootout in the SEC title game and a convincing 31-14 win over Notre Dame in the CFP semifinal of the Rose Bowl. Ohio State on the other hand had three of their eight regular games canceled due to COVID concerns and it took the Big Ten to change their rules about the minimum amount of games played to qualify for a spot in the conference championship game, which they struggled with Northwestern through three-and-a-half quarters, but then surprisingly lit Clemson up 49-28 in the Sugar Bowl, to make it to the big game. All those different factors that have led to the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes meeting in the CFP final don’t matter now, because while people may want to put an asterisk to this very unique season, in the end one of these teams can call themselves national champions. So now let’s see how these two teams match up and what I believe will happen. I will have one paragraph each for one team’s offense, the defense they are facing and how some of the matchups may favor either side, then I give you one X-factor for each team and finally get to my score prediction. Alabama offense vs. Ohio State defense:https://preview.redd.it/jyv3a03vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=1425bbefc430d3461c32c9568f98bb050e990ec5 The Crimson Tide offense to me is really based around the RPO game, which they use a lot in combination with those wide zone runs out of shotgun or power with both guards pulling. And even when they run more downhill, they stress defenses horizontally with all the bubble screens and stuff they have integrated. Maybe their best run play is duo out of pistol sets, where Najee Harris is very patient when picking his spots, but then becomes a load to bring once he shifts into gear. To me he has been the best college running back over the last two years, because he shows excellent pace and vision for backside cuts and while he may not great breakaway speed, he constantly gains yards through contact and we have seen him hurdle quite a few defenders now, who have tried to go low on him. Plus he is one of the top pass-protecting backs and route-runners in the country. In the dropback pass game, it is all about how they can create space for their receivers on crossing routes or get them into matchups with safeties down the field. One of the reasons this has been the most explosive Alabama offense ever – with three of the top five Heisman candidates – and OC Steve Sarkisian was just named the new head coach of Texas is the way they create leverage advantages for their receivers and how they attack the rules of defenses with different motions and run the same concepts out of their various sets – especially mesh. Something they love to do is have the back in the shotgun motion across his alignment and putting stress on those linebackers to shift with him. Plus they have elite pass protection, which allows those plays to develop, and Mac Jones has very calm feet when sliding around in the pocket, to go with excelling on touch passes. And with Sark saying he is still all-in for this game, his new job shouldn’t have any impact. Ohio State’s defense was pretty disappointing early on compared to the 2019 season, which has a lot to do with losing the number two and three picks to the most recent NFL draft in Chase Young and Jeffrey Okudah. They allowed 25 points to a pretty limited Penn State offense, 27 to Rutgers and 35 to Indiana. However, their defensive line has really started to take over games down the stretch and they have been very opportunistic since then, forcing four turnovers against Michigan State and then two each in both their “playoff games” basically. Their defensive tackle duo of Haskell Garrett and Tommy Togiai has been tremendous over the second half of their season and the Buckeyes have a lot of depth on the interior to keep them fresh. You see them stacking their blockers and then being very active with working back across their faces to get to the ball-carrier constantly, which has them as the number two run defense in the country behind only Georgia (89.1 yards per game). Something Clemson put a focus on early on in the semifinal game was attacking the edges of the Buckeye defense with jet sweeps, bubbles and tosses. And then if you get some lateral movement, both Tuf Borland and Pete Warner struggle to keep their shoulder squared to the line of scrimmage, which can get them burnt by cutbacks to where they originally lined up. Trevor Lawrence did throw for 400 yards against them in the Sugar Bowl, but that was more of a product of chipping away at more prevent defense, as Clemson was down early, and the Tigers were held to just 44 yards rushing. Still, they give up some big plays through the air, in part because of how soft their corners play in three-deep coverages. As great as Bama is at creating leverage issues and seemingly making it impossible for zone defenders to stay true to their assignments, in terms of not being able to properly to pass on receivers, I think Ohio State would be best served to just throw a lot of different hard shells at the Crimson Tide and not allow themselves to fall victim to their own match principles as much. Because if Michael Penix can light them up for almost 500 yards when they show single-high from the start, lord have mercy with them in this game. Shaun Wade has said that we “already know who he wants to go up against”, talking about Heisman trophy winner DeVonta Smith, who has averaged 136.8 yards per game and reached the end-zone 20 times this season. While the Buckeyes do play a lot of cover-three match, Wade does end up in one-on-one situations quite a bit in those single-high looks. However, I’m not sure if I love this matchup for him, because if Ohio State asks Wade to press, I think Smitty will give him a lot of issues with those stutter releases and while the receiver is only 6’1”, he has received the nickname “The Slim Reaper” in part because we have seen him kill people at the catch point throughout his career. And if Jaylen Waddle is back (who I’ll still talk about more in a bit), the Crimson Tide have a trio with those two and John Metchie that could give the rest of that secondary a lot of issues. A spot where the Buckeyes could give Alabama some trouble is at center, where the Tide lost one of their biggest leaders in Landon Dickerson on their final touchdown in the SEC title game, who is also a huge piece in creating movement on those combo-blocks with his guards and passing on different games up front by the D-line. So Tommy Togiai will definitely be a challenge at that shade nose position and I could see Ohio State put a lot of pressure on his replacement Chris Owens with delayed blitzes by their linebackers or bring somebody up the A-gaps on a delayed loop. The Buckeyes show a lot of five-man fronts on third downs and drop one man out, plus they like those E-T and inside twists. Ohio State offense vs. Alabama defense:https://preview.redd.it/yj46cq2vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=a417489a29fff438c7251ec7a8b17555e485d564 The view on this Ohio State offense and quarterback Justin Fields in particular has been kind of a see-saw over their last three weeks. They were scoring 46.6 points through their five regular Big Ten games, before they really struggled against Northwestern in the conference championship game, and then they reached the end-zone seven times against Clemson in the CFP semifinal. After Trey Sermon had only 344 rushing yards through the five regular season games combined, he went off for a school-record 331 on 29 carries against Northwestern, who gave the Buckeyes a lot of challenges in the pass game, and then he touched the ball 35 times for 254 yards against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl. I wasn’t overly impressed with him in that Ohio State jersey until then, because I liked his Oklahoma tape so much better, but he has started to run so much more physical and that stiff arm he dishes out is becoming a real problem for defenders. Over that two-game stretch in particular, they have a lot of inside zone away from the tight-end and even more of the split zone, with one of the TEs lined up as the H-back and coming across on a sift block, where you see Sermon cut it all the way back routinely. Plus they have a bunch of bootlegs off it. Ryan Day also started using a lot more 12 personnel with Luke and Jeremy Ruckert, which gives them a lot of flexibility, whether it is putting them in bunches detached from the line or line them up to one side in two-by-two sets, to force the hand of the defense. Something they create problems with out of those stacks and bunches are the switch releases they use and when they get Chris Olave or Garrett Wilson matched up against safeties vertically from the slot. And with their run game really kicking into gear, they have been deadly off play-action, which all of their successful deep balls came from against Clemson – mostly with seven men in protection or leaking one of them out late. And while Justin Fields hasn’t been a surgical passer necessarily, double-clutching and making some ill-advised throws, he can still let it fly and just watch the play he had before their second TD in the Sugar Bowl, when the Tigers were all over a running back screen and he took off to get them back into position for him to fire a laser to his tight-end in the end-zone on the very next snap, with a defender in perfect position. This is not the Alabama defense of the early 2010s that held opponents to single-digit points on a regular basis, but it’s also certainly not the one from the last year, that got lit up for 94 combined points by their two biggest rivals in LSU and Auburn. The two teams that gave the Crimson Tide defense a lot of issues were wide open spread offenses – Ole Miss put 48 points up against them and Florida in the SEC championship game 46 (funnily also a combined 94). However, in the ten other games they have played, they allowed an average of just 12.4 points per contest. They play a lot three down-linemen plus one of their OLBs standing up on the edge and they have two very rangy linebackers behind that. Bama gives up an average of 20 first downs to their opponents (tied for 44th in the country), but they create a lot of negative plays, with an SEC-high 6.4 tackles for loss per game, to go with 34 sacks and 22 takeaways in 12 games. Nick Saban and DC Pete Golding run more split-safety looks than I can remember in a while, because while they do have arguably the top corner in the country in Patrick Surtain II, the rest of their secondary can be exploited. And that also makes them vulnerable over the middle on dig routes and attacking the seams, while not doing a whole lot of disguising on the back-end. Ohio State hit Clemson over the top for a 56-yard touchdown to Chris Olave, when they were running a double post concept against quarters coverage – so those safeties can’t really squat on those in-breaking routes either. To not let those downfield patterns develop, the Tide will have to come after Fields, where Christian Barmore has turned himself into a monster at create push up the middle and then you have Will Anderson coming off the edge with ferocious pursuit – so Fields better be careful with holding onto the ball when he gets outside the tackle box. As much love as the matchup between Devonta Smith and Shaun Wade will get, I’m also looking forward to seeing how much Chris Olave and Patrick Surtain II will be matched up against each other. As technically advanced as Surtain may be with his fake press technique and guiding receivers into the boundary, he just gave up a long touchdown against Florida in the SEC title game on a pass that hung in the air for a while, which is where he hasn’t been tested a whole lot this season. Surtain almost exlusively lines up on the defensive left outside, so I still expect the Buckeyes to get their receivers in better matchups usually though. Going back to the Florida game, something the Gators did a ton of is getting Kadarius Toney matched up with Alabama’s nickel of STAR Malachi Moore and put him in a plenty of disadvantages, even lining Toney up in the backfield at times. I don’t know if he can hang with those Buckeye receivers, as long as they have enough protection to let routes develop. Not only that, but we have seen opposing teams give the Tide some trouble by getting their backs out on wheel routes or just releasing late with a lot of space underneath – especially Dylan Moses, who can definitely move, but panics with his back to the ball at times. Something Bama could create some issues with on the other hand, is scheming up free rushers, where they do a good job of lining one of the backers up in a gap and occupying the guard, while they bring their STAR off the slot or blitz Christian Harris from different angles, which Justin Fields is a little oblivious to at times and might not be able to get away from as effectively in this game. X-factors:https://preview.redd.it/qsh7t23vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=d3ba5d197a6f88a8227a32efb1272d370e0570b6 Alabama – Jaylen Waddle I usually don’t like going with star players as X-factors, because it obviously doesn’t really fit the category, but with Waddle his health and involvement could make a huge difference. Waddle was off to an incredible start to his junior season, as he basically averaged 142.2 yards and a touchdown through the first four games (since he broke his ankle on the opening kickoff against Tennessee). As phenomenal a season as Devonta Smith has had, this was the most dynamic player on that team and he looked like a Heisman candidate himself. Steve Sarkisian moved him all over the formation and attacked different matchups, while manufacturing touches for him on speed sweeps and stuff like that, to go along with the threat he presented as maybe the most dangerous return man in the country. Nick Saban has said that #17 will most likely be a true game-time decision and I wouldn’t expect him to play the majority of snaps, but if they can use him to attack the edges of the Buckeyes a few times, like I already talked about, or he can at least be a decoy, that would only make the Alabama offense even tougher to defend. Ohio State – Justin Fields’ ribs And then I’m going to go with a certain body part of another star player. Fields took a major shot to the mid-section by Clemson linebacker James Skalski in the first half of the Sugar Bowl. And while he went on to put together a performance for the ages with those six touchdowns, you saw him be in pain on several occasions when he released the ball. So not only could this be a factor in terms of his accuracy, if he tries to shorten that motion or kind of side-arm throws, but also just how much of an element as a runner he brings, pulling the ball on zone reads or scrambling if they give him a lane. And you already know those Bama defenders will try to land shots, to make him hesitant with putting himself into those situations. When you look at some of the big runs the Buckeyes have had before they switched to more of those pistol sets with two tight-ends on the field, you see the back basically replace the contain defender on the backside edge, as Fields takes that guy with him. My prediction:https://preview.redd.it/aqmkx03vraa61.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e2b879254cee7faefb54602bcf66c979725aa21 Alabama 41 – Ohio State 34 Could Justin Fields bring that “best player on the field” factor and kind of will his team to victory much like Deshaun Watson did against Alabama back in 2017? Yes. Mac Jones is not on the same level talent-wise and can’t make those same off-script plays like Fields, but if that Alabama O-line can keep him clean, like they have done all season long, and he can just take advantage of the separation his skill-position create as plays develop, the Ohio State secondary can not cover all those weapons. If the Buckeyes want to continue having success in the run game, they will have to get those linebackers out of position with misdirection, which they were vulnerable at early on in the season, and not allow the Crimson Tide to keep those three big D-linemen on the field. I could see the Ohio State linebackers get killed in space, as they have to match up with crossers or Najee Harris one-on-one. In the end I’m going with Nick Saban’s defense winning a few more plays against Ryan Day’s offense than the Buckeyes back-seven slowing down this explosive passing attack for Bama, as long as the D-line doesn’t make Mac Jones uncomfortable early on. If you enjoyed this breakdown, I would really appreciate if you could check out the original piece - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2021/01/08/previewing-the-2021-cfp-national-championship-game/ |
Final regular season "Lock of the Week" record: 14-4 straight up, 7-11 against the spread. NFL Week 17 picks: All the rest. Vikings 31-17 over Lions Raiders 34-24 over Broncos Jets 19-16 over Patriots Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,995-2,761-179, 52.0% (+$19,655) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 957-859-49 (52.7%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%) NFL Week 17 – Picks Against the Spread NFL Week 17 – Picks Against the Spread. January 2, 2021 Jack Brentnall Betting, NFL. The final weekend of the regular season is here and it looks set to be a great one. There are still seven playoff spots to play for and some huge games to keep an eye on. I went 7-8-1 last week, but my two picks of the ... 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread (ATS) for Week 17 By Kevin McGuire , 12/31/20, 10:30 AM EST Baker Mayfield's Browns are heavy favorites in a must-win game against shorthanded Pittsburgh In our picks and predictions against the spread for Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season, the Cowboys take care of business vs. the Giants and win the NFC East thank to help from the Eagles. Plus, the ... The NFL odds and picks against the spread for the final week of the 2020 season. ... We’re on to Week 17 in the NFL, with the final regular-season games being played on Sunday. That means it’s ... N.F.L. Week 17 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread Ten teams will be fighting for seven playoff spots on a final regular-season Sunday when numerous playoff seedings can change. Here is a look at N.F.L. Week 17, with all picks made against the point spread. Last week’s record: 8-7-1. Overall record: 126-109-5. The Games That Matter. Much of the focus of this week will ... NFL week 17 is here. Picking NFL games straight up is hard enough, but picking against the spread is even tougher. Here are the NFL week 17 picks against the spread. (Spreads are from tallysight.com as of Tuesday morning) Last week: 8-7-1, Overall: 120–117-3
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